Similar to last week’s fashion, we saw BTC’s price experience a 7% change intra-week from a high of $10,596 and a low of around $9,862 (which probably stomped out a bunch of stop loss orders but not as bad as the wacky $2,000 takeout in both price directions experienced on the crypto exchange Kraken) ending the week at around $10,366. The week was overall flat as we see BTC’s price continue to consolidate even further in anticipation of a breakout/breakdown of this triangle pattern formation (read about this in our previous week's analysis). But if BTC sees another pull back to $9,000 or even $8,000, we have many crypto enthusiasts, including CNBC’s Brian Kelly personally stating that a pullback in the near term would be a “generational buying opportunity”. Take it for what it’s worth but many BTC bulls would agree that any 4-digit BTC is a BTC worth buying. We don't know for sure how far the next bull run will take us!

The alts world (alts refers to alternative coins which usually indicates any cryptocurrency besides bitcoin) also experienced a flat week for the most part with EOS plowing forward for yet another week with a 7% gain. BNB, Binance’s native crypto, showed a similar percentage change but towards the downside. Compared to the past week, things are looking to get more interesting this week as the US Fed, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan all gearing up to make  monetary policy decisions. Will a rate cut by the US Fed give a jolt to BTC (what's the relationship between government stocks and bitcoin)? After rates were controversially cut by the government back in July 31 of this year, BTC jumped 6% in one day for the first time since 2008. Many experts and insiders at the Fed are already pricing in for another rate cut. But the question is has BTC priced in the rate cut already? Fasten your seatbelts as we brace for either that breakout or breakdown in BTC in the near term!

weekly chart 16.9.19

Chart Analysis
Two weeks ago, we saw a death cross occur at the $172 price level (A Death Cross occurs when the 50 MA cuts through the 200 MA towards the downside). This is the first time this has happened since April 10, 2018. During this period we saw ETH drop from $400 to $82 (a drop of around 80%!). If this is an accurate harbinger of a similar event we can expect ETH to drop to a price level of $35. While the probability of this occuring is very low, just keep in mind, this is crypto. If you see the trend reoccuring, you might consider initiating a short!

3 Things you should know about the Cryptocurrency Market

ONE
PNC becomes the first US Bank to process cross border payments using RippleNet. Ripple’s full suite of services, which include xCurrent and xRapid, allows for cross border payments to be processed faster, cheaper, with more stability, and on a larger scale. Ripple’s XRP, in these cases, acts as a bridge currency in cross border payments. 

TWO
After an drone attack on a Saudi Arabian oil facility removed around 5% of global oil supplies, the price of oil jumped about $12 with futures stocks related to oils shot up 15%. This price shock in global oil prices was the highest felt on record enticing fears of further oil price increases. On the same day, a risk off sentiment (what does risk on risk off mean?) was felt throughout the markets. Gold prices reflected this rising 1%, and equities moving in the other direction.

THREE
In the continuing race to provide the first retail Bitcoin ETF, Bitwise continues to push forward by announcing BNY Mellon as a transfer agent and administrator for its proposed Bitcoin ETF (what's an ETF?). As we have seen from last week’s announcement by VanEck, the race to providing a truly retail investor focused Bitcoin ETF is still up in the air as the SEC continues to drag its feet. Questions around safe custody and market manipulation when it comes to crypto are still head scratchers to regulators. But as we continue to see more institutional money coming into the space, liquidity and volume are going to be key indicators in giving crypto less of a “wild, wild, west” perception.

 

 

 

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