The Rundown

Sorry to break it to everybody but the past week for Bitcoin was plain boring. In a 180 degree contrast to the action we experienced from the Xi shill the other week, BTC only just eked out into positive territory with barely a 90 basis point gain (what’s a basis point?). Strange isn’t it? BTC seems to be trading more along the lines of the traditional markets; indeed, the S&P sneaked out slightly over a 100 basis point gain last week as well.  

The numbers do seem to indicate that Bitcoin is headed towards mass adoption and if you take BTC’s historical price on a logarithmic scale and believe in ascending channels, looks like we’re shooting for $20M… But we’re still a long ways away from real mainstream adoption.

china blockchain assessment

As we all saw from Xi Jinping’s announcement this past week, China is moving FAST on this technology. However, regardless of its central importance in crypto mainstream-ization, China is also a long ways away. BXB Exchange’s tech team is based in Shanghai, the most international and educated city in China, but here still the odds of finding someone being able to explain blockchain, besides muttering the words bitcoin, in a simple coherent answer is probably close to 1/1000.

In an inside scoop, we’ve managed to get our hands on a bitcoin 101 crash course booklet used to educate CPC (Communist Party of China) officials after the Xi announcement:

 

china blockchain assessment

To continue with the China theme, Tron (a China based blockchain) has been the surprising leader amongst the top alts this past week with a 20% gain to the upside. This comes after a tough slump in the past year with their provocative CEO having to apologize to the crypto community for too much social media hyping. A large reason for the recent pump was due to their partnership announcement with Samsung, whom will support TRX tokens on their new Blockchain Keystore SDK. To shill TRX even more, China’s state-backed workgroup, CCID, published its latest Blockchain rankings report with TRX moving up to the second spot.

"China’s state-backed workgroup, CCID, published its latest Blockchain rankings report with TRX moving up to the second spot."

 

 

china blockchain assessment

Despite the resurgence in TRX, I don’t see the token’s price continuing its recent rise due to its RSI level showing an overbought exhaustion hovering over the 80 level for the past few days. Its 200D MA is clearly acting as a resistance around $0.023. If TRX manages to close a daily candle above that level, look for the bulls to remerge again or look for it to quickly consolidate back down to the $0.017 level.

Honorary mentions goes towards BCH and XLM, whom also had substantial gains this week with gains of about 17% and 15%, respectively. In fact, all the major alt coins that we’ve been following are all up against BTC including (pivoting now towards the traditional markets) the S&P which managed to squeeze out a 1.4% gain in the same week where we saw the Fed cut rates once again. As mentioned before in a previous post, negative rates for the US is not an impossibility. Japan and Germany have been running negative rates for over a decade already. So for those who have substantial portions of your wealth in money markets or CDs (what’s a CD?), it would be ill-advised to keep parking it there. Or as the author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad” puts it, “savers are for losers”.

china blockchain assessment

Three things to know

  1. Vault12, backed by Winklevoss Capital and a few other VCs, are offering a new way to secure and store your private keys through the means of your friends. By leveraging a cryptographic technique called Shamir’s Secret Sharing, users can partition their private key and distribute it to their friends, aka guardians, to hold onto. Way to go to them for building on the decentralization theme!
  2. In what was a boring week for BTC, the once largest BTC mining pool owner, Bitmain, created some nice internal drama that unfolded publicly as Jihan Wu formed what looked like a coup to regain control of the company. They ousted the former leader Micree Zhan all while Bitmain is in the process of filing an IPO in the US.
  3. Bitmex, one of the largest crypto derivative exchanges, is yet once again in the dog pound by accidently exposing user’s emails through a general user update email sent out by the firm. Whoops!

Chart of the Week

The Death Cross refers to the 50 MA crossing down through the 200 MA but what is it called when the 100 MA crosses down through the 200 MA? Regardless of what that would be referred to, it is interesting to note that amongst the major alts that we have been following - LTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, XLM , BCH, EOS, ADA , TRX , and DASH - BTC is the only one remaining with its 100 DSMA still above the 200 DSMA (what’s a DSMA?) But it's approaching real fast. The last time this happened was in April of 2018 (where we actually saw BTC's price rise close to 50% during that timeframe only to continue its downtrend until the end of that year...)

So was Xi’s shill the other week also a false breakout? Only time will tell!

weekly chart 3.11.19